Archive for December, 2009

Celebrating the New Year with a Blue Moon

Tuesday, December 29th, 2009

By David L. Brown

When something unusual happens, we often hear that it was “once in a Blue Moon.” But how rare to experience a “blue moon” on a very special day, New Year’s Eve. Tomorrow you can witness that even more unusual event.

The term has nothing to do with the color of the moon — it will look just the same as any other full moon. I took the picture below in Navajo Country in northwestern New Mexico as a full moon rose over the desert.

moonWe call it a blue moon when a second full moon appears during a single month. This month the Moon was full on December 2, and will be again on December 31, so that identifies the New Years Eve moon as a blue one.

Why are the appearances of blue moons unusual events? Most years have twelve full moons, taking place about once every month (the words “month” and “moon” come from the same Old English root). But the period of the moon’s orbit around the Earth isn’t quite a month long, so at the end of every year there are a few extra days. Those days add up and about every 2.7 years there is an extra full moon to make up the difference.

There are many theories where the term came from. One relates to the fact that in Medieval times the English clergy used the phases of the moon to determine the dates for Lent and Easter. If a full moon appeared too early, it was called a “betrayer moon,” using the Old English word “belewe,” meaning either betrayer or blue. Later English writers confused the two meanings.

Whatever the reasons, what better way to celebrate the end of the year just ending than to step outside and observe the rising full moon. For once in how many blue moons will it be before such events will occur together? Because of geometry, a full moon always rises in the East opposite the setting sun, so right after dark is a good time to view Luna in her splendor.

But if you wait until the traditional Midnight, the moment of the changing of the year, it may be an even more spectacular sight, for then the blue moon will be shining brightly from directly overhead, halfway across the sky.

Happy New Year.

Posted in Astronomy | Comments Off

‘Glitter-sized’ solar cells you could wear

Saturday, December 26th, 2009

By David L. Brown

Microscopic solar cells with the potential to bring solar power to places where no solar cell has gone before are being developed at the Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM. The tiny cells are one-tenth the thickness of traditional solar cells and can potentially pv_microbe attached to flexible backings that could be mounted onto any odd-shaped object such as buildings, clothing, or even camping tents, thus bringing solar power to anyplace where the Sun shines.

The tiny cells, described as “glitter-sized,” are made from crystalline silicon and are expected to eventually be cheaper to make and more efficient than present photovoltaic collectors, according to a news release. They can be made in present manufacturing facilities, using far less silicon than traditional solar cells and with less waste. The cells, pictured above, measure from 0.25 to 1 mm in size (1/100 to 1/25 inch).

According to Sandia field engineer Vipin Gupta larger installations on the roofs of houses and warehouses “could have intelligent controls, inverters and even storage built in at the chip level.”

Thinner than the thickness of a human hair, the chips perform as well as conventional cells that are ten times thicker. They use 100 times less silicon to generate the same amount of electricity, the researchers say. Because the cells are so small they are less sensitive to overhead obstructions that can cause conventional panels to turn off entirely when part of the surface is blocked from the Sun.

According to lead investigator Greg Nielson, the “glitter-sized” cells could allow campers, hunters and military personnel in the field to recharge cell phones, cameras and other electronic gear just by walking around in the Sun while wearing special clothing. Other potential uses are in satellites and remote sensing installations.

Solar concentrators, arrays of microscopic lenses to focus the sunlight, can be placed over the tiny cells to increase the efficiency by increasing the number of photons striking the cells. The concentrators should be cheaper to make and more efficient, again because of the small size of the cells.

Because of the large number of cells in an array, high-voltage output can be generated directly, reducing costs and taking advantage of lower losses due to electrical resistance in wiring at higher voltages.

Sandia Laboratories is operated by Lockheed-Martin Company for the Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration.

Below are pictured three of the Sandia research team members holding micro solar arrays; from left: Murat Okandan, Greg Nielson, Jose Luis Cruz-Campa.

pv_group

Posted in Solar Power, Technology | Comments Off

‘Stacked’ Chips Could Replace Hard Drives

Thursday, December 24th, 2009

By David L. Brown

As applications and databases grow ever larger and more complex, computers demand more and more memory. Hard drives are reaching the limits of how much data they can hold — but a solution may be coming soon. It’s all to do with the idea of ‘stacking’ memory chips to increase density, much as a can of Pringles can hold as much as a large bag of edible chips.

According to a report from Arizona State University, Tempe, a team led by Dr. Michael Kozicki has developed just such a way to “stack” memory layers on a single chip to make high-density memory modules.

“This could lead to hard drive data storage on a chip,” Kozicki said, “which enables portable systems that are smaller, more rugged and able to go longer between battery charges.”

Imagine the capacity of a full-sized hard drive on a tiny chip that could reside in a cell phone or other portable device. Not only may that be possible, but Kozicki says the stacked memory chips are simple and can be made using present technology and materials.

Kozicki is a professor of electrical engineering and director of ASU’s Center for Applied Nanoionics, devoted to studying nano-scale electronics. Graduate student Sarath C. Puthen Thermadam also worked on the project.

Memory cells could not previously be stacked because the individual cells could not be isolated.

“Before, if you joined several memory cells together you wouldn’t be able to access one without accessing all of the others because they were all wired together,” Kozicki explained. “What we did was put in an access, or islolation device, that electrically splits all of them into individual cells.”

Each memory cell has a built-in diode to isolate the layer, which will “allow us to put in as many layers as we can squeeze in there,” Kozicki said.

Each layer adds significantly more memory to the chip. For example, a chip with eight layers of memory would have nearly eight times as much capacity in the same area as a conventional single-layered chip.

“Stackable memory is thought to be the only way of reaching the densities necessary for the type of solid state memory that can compete with hard drives on cost as well as information capacity,” he said. “It turns out to be a ridiculously simple idea, but it works. It works better than the complicated ideas work.”

Moore’s Law, which stipulates that computer power will double approximately every 18 months, seems to be in effect for some time to come.

Posted in Technology | Comments Off

A World Teetering on the Brink of Instability

Thursday, December 17th, 2009

By David L. Brown

A news release from Earth Policy Institute this morning features a peek at the subject of global stability as reported in Lester Brown’s new book Plan B 4.0. This is a critical issue because nations that are failing create difficulty for any response to climate change and resource depletion.

I was intrigued by the list Brown presents, a ranking of the Top 20 failing states in the world as of 2008 (the 2009 list is out now, and is essentially unchanged). The table is from Foreign Policy magazine, based on statistics developed by the Fund for Peace in cooperation with the magazine. Together they each year measure the instability index of the world’s nations, that is, the chances they are failing or have already failed. These are the worst-cases:

top_20_failing_states

The rankings are based on 1-10 scores in 12 critical areas, with 10 being the worst. Thus, a completely failed state will score 120 points. (It’s hard to imagine such a place; it would probably consist of radioactive slag.) It’s no surprise to see that Somalia is No. 1 with 114.7 points. Zimbabwe is less than a point behind, followed by Sudan, Chad and the Democratic Republic of the Congo.

It’s interesting to examine some of the other failed or failing states on this list. Extremely notable, to me at least, is that coming in Nos. 6 and 7 are nations familiar to most Americans … Iraq (108.6) and Afghanistan (108.2). These scores represent 90% of “perfect,” and yet we must scratch our head in puzzlement at the fact that our nation and many of its allies have spent the better part of a decade in the mission of creating successful democratic societies in those very places.

Now I am all in favor of peaceful democratic societies, but it’s generally been proven that nearly-failed states are not usually places where they are found. Does it make sense to attempt to plant the seeds of Western civilization in such infertile soil?

Iraq was formerly ruled by a ruthless dictator, “peace” being maintained under the iron-shod boot of tyranny. As Western troops depart, will that unhappy nation continue to move in the direction of “peaceful, Western-style democracy,” or will it break down into bloody rivalry between Shia, Sunni and Kurdish factions? As a very nearly failed state, the latter scenario seems a more likely outcome than the emergence of a Jeffersonian Golden Age.

And in Afghanistan, things are even worse. That benighted place has never really been a nation at all, but a ragtag collection of fiefdoms ruled over by warlords and funded by the opium trade. Even today, after years of military operations against them, the Taliban control wide areas of the region. Now that the U.S. has set its departure date for  2011, what hope is there for this failed state to suddenly thrive and grow into a peaceful member of the world’s democratic nations? To demonstrate my guess about the odds of that happening, try this experiment: Place one large snowball in a microwave oven; set the controls to “high” and the timer for ten minutes; and hit “cook”. Later as you mop up the floor, you’ll have a good analogy of what will likely be the future in Afghanistan, a place that has been impossible to rule since the days of Alexander the Great. Namely, a huge mess.

The place is absolutely unready to take responsibility for its own governance and security. The U.S. Marines have been assigned the task of training native Afghan soldiers, and according to a recent report from The Guardian, it’s a near fruitless exercise, dealing with illiterate, lazy, hash-smoking peasants who are completely ill-suited to function as modern-day soldiers.

So the outlook is dim for Afghanistan, No. 7 on the list  of Top 20 Failed States. But what can we learn from some of the others?

Well, there’s Pakistan right there at No. 10. The world’s sixth most populous nation, Pakistan is a nuclear power. How do you feel knowing that a nation that ranks 104.1 on an instability scale of 120 has nuclear bombs and missiles? Imagine how India feels, having to live right next door.

Pakistan isn’t the only unstable nation with a large population to make the list. Bangladesh, with a score of 98.1 is the seventh most populous nation, and right behind it is Nigeria, the eighth largest by population and a score of 99.8.

But that’s not all, for the Top 20 also includes North Korea, another nuclear power. Talk about instability!

Now, from the Fund for Peace website, here is a graphic to give you the “big picture” about world instability. You might be surprised and even dismayed, may even feel chills go up and down your spine. The nations colored in red are the most seriously failed or failing. There are presently 38 of them including Iran, another dangerous and potential nuclear power with a score of 90.0.

failedstatesYes, the red is where the most trouble is, but notice how much of the world is covered in orange, indicating a “warning” stage. And as far as those nations shown in green and judged “sustainable,” meaning safe, there are only 13 of them, not including the U.S., Britain, France, Germany, Japan and many other advanced nations. As you can see, Canada, Australia and New Zealand, along with Ireland and five Scandinavian countries including Iceland are the main “safe” places, along with Switzerland, Holland, Austria and Luxembourg.

In case you’re wondering, here are the scores for some of the “yellow” countries: Germany 36.2; France 35.3; United States 34.0; United Kingdom 30.5; Japan 31.2. And the “safest” place of all: Norway 18.3.

It is interesting to note that the further you get from the “center” as indicated by this map, the safer. Central Africa, the Middle East and a few nations along the fringe  of Asia are worst off, surrounded by a sea of orange. It is only when you get far away from these areas that the colors fade to yellow, and finally to green.

And all of these nations, with perhaps only a rare exception or two, are presently meeting in Copenhagen to discuss a global plan to cooperate in mitigating CO2 emissions, no doubt the greatest challenge humanity has ever faced. What could go wrong?

Posted in Conflict and War, Default File, Economics, Energy Technology, Essays and Opinion, Global Security, Politics, Population Issues | Comments Off

$100 Million Funding for Algae Biofuels Plant

Friday, December 11th, 2009

By David L. Brown

A $50 million federal grant has been awarded to Sapphire Energy of San Diego, CA, for a revolutionary bio-fuels plant to be built in New Mexico. The announcement was made by Energy Secretary Steven Chu, whose department issued the grant under the economic recovery program. At the same time Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack announced the USDA would further back the program with loan guarantees up to $54.5 million.

The company is pioneering what it calls “green crude oil,” created from renewable algae. The “green crude” will be used to make biodiesel and jet fuel. The company has already demonstrated the concept with research facilities at Las Cruces, NM and Portales, NM. The process has been demonstrated with several airliner test flights powered by fuel made by the company, and experiments are underway to prove the ability of algae-oil to be used to make gasoline.

potential_mainThe project will demonstrate an integrated process in which algae will be grown in ponds, then processed to remove water and extract oils. In a second stage the oils will be processed to produce fuels. Algae, pictured at left, not only grows fast (think kudzu here), but naturally contains a high percentage of oils.

According to Sapphire CEO the project will create as many as 750 direct and indirect jobs in New Mexico during construction, and 30-40 full-time positions after the plant is opened. Construction is expected to begin next year.

Sapphire claims that the new energy model, which uses water, carbon dioxide and sunlight to grow the algae, will be carbon neutral and produce fuels identical to those made from fossil fuels. It does not require large inputs of water and energy, nor does it rely on agricultural crops as is the case with some other alternative fuel processes such as those used to produce ethanol from corn and biodiesel from soybeans.

New Mexico Senator Tom Udall hailed the project, saying it “will decrease our dependence on foreign oil, reduce our carbon footprint, and create jobs for hardworking New Mexicans.”

Algae offers one of the best sources for bio-fuels, since it can be grown relatively cheaply in ponds or tanks in areas with lots of sunlight, even deserts as in southern New Mexico. Corn for ethanol, on the other hand, is a farm crop requiring many inputs of land, labor, chemicals and seeds. Using farm crops to replace oil is unsustainable, uneconomical, and just plain foolish.

This is not the only such program in the works. On July 15, 2009, I reported (here) a major investment by oil giant ExxonMobil in an algae energy joint venture with Synthetic Genomics, a company founded by geneticist Craig Venter. ExxonMobil was reported to be putting $600 million into the plan. BP and other companies are also jumping on the algae bandwagon, making this one of the hottest areas in alternative fuel development.

All is not roses in the risky business of alternative energy. On May 13, 2009 it was announced that GreenFuel Technologies was closing down, a victim of the credit crunch. I posted an extensive report on this company’s algae fuel program on October 20, 2006 (here). GreenFuel was a joint venture between Harvard and MIT, and invested millions before falling victim to the economic troubles.

Posted in Age of Oil, Agriculture Issues, Bio-Engineering, Energy Technology, Fossil Fuels | Comments Off

Amusing Group Meets in Copenhagen

Wednesday, December 9th, 2009

By David L. Brown

According to an article in the British newspaper The Telegraph today (read it here), a small group of global warming deniers met in Denmark to discuss their many alternative theories about why climate change is not the fault of human beings. It’s amusing to read some excerpts from the report, but first you need to know that, according to Telegraph writer Louise Gray, the group in question consisted of “more than 50 scientists, businessmen and lobby groups.”

“Businessmen”? “Lobby groups”? Umm, well, OK, but when real scientists meet they don’t include these categories among their ranks. Now on to some quotes:

The meeting was organised by Danish group Climate Sense and the lobby group Committee for a Constructive Tomorrow (CFACT).

Craig Rucker, Executive Director of CFACT, admitted the organisation have taken funding from Exxon Mobil in the past but pointed out that many environmental groups are also receiving funding from major corporations.

Um, OK again. If Greenpeace or Save the Whales R Us and so forth receive corporate funding, then it’s perfectly all right for these climate deniers to take money from the leading supporter of anti-global warming propaganda. It’s only fair. (Warning: sarcasm and/or irony may exist.)

The lead scientist quoted in the article made the case that warming is simply a result of Good Old Sol, the Sun, just doing his thing, and that rising CO2 levels haven’t anything to do with it. This Danish physicist, Henrik Svensmark, states that the present warming is similar to that experienced during the so-called Medieval Warming Period. Well, here’s a temperature chart for the last 2000 years, from several reconstructions based on ice cores, tree rings and other evidence.

2000_year_temperature_comparison

Well, it doesn’t look like Dr. Svensmark is quite correct, does it? Compared with the MWP, today’s steady increase is considerably different, and it brought us right up out of the Little Ice Age starting around 1800 when the Industrial Revolution was first gaining momentum. (There are some experts who believe the LIA was the beginning of a new real Ice Age, and that human caused global warming reversed the cooling trend.

Here’s a closer look, from a graph just released a few days ago and containing three different results from actual measurements made around the world since 1850:

zz72d5d436

It is interesting to see that there was a fairly level line until about the time of WWI. After that it climbed until about 1940, dropped due to the devastation of industry during WWII, and around 1950 started to rise fairly steadily. That was the same time that the burst of industrial growth really took off. Coincidence? Dr. Svensmark seems to think so, but I suspect most of the thousands of climate scientists who were not among the “more than 50″ scientists, businessmen and lobbyists in attendance at the alternative meeting in Denmark would question his conclusions.

Also reported at the meeting of deniers:

A geologist from Australia said that ice cap melting is due to geothermal heating rather than from warmer global surface temperatures. Um, might tell that to the Arctic specialists who have observed many times the average warming in the far north. No geothermal events there, it’s an ocean.  And in Greenland, the melting starts on top and warm water cascades to the bottom through crevasses. Is it reasonable to think that there are all kinds of sub-Arctic and sub-Antarctic volcanoes beginning to smolder and melt the ice, and if so, why now? The  ice sheets are ancient, perhaps tens of millions of years old.

Another Australian said that “carbon dioxide from volcanoes rather than humans is driving warming as part of a natural process.” Interesting that the eruption of Mount Pinatubo nearly 20 years ago caused a prolonged cooling, which can be seen in the graph above. According to Wikipedia, as a result of the Pinatubo blast: “Global temperatures dropped by about 0.5 °C (0.9 °F).” Numerous recent eruptions have also caused short-term cooling, but these events are superimposed on the continuing upward trend.

Then this outburst of vented spleen:

Graham Capper of Climate Sense said manmade global warming was a myth and scientists who said otherwise were lying.

“There are people who know they are lying and do it simply for money and others who think they are doing good,” he said. “But they not good scientists.”

Doing it for money? What, not Exxon Mobil, so who else is buying off scientists? And, if they not good scientists, why they not good? This is nothing  more than frothing-at-the-mouth madness, coming from the mouth of, well whoever this guy is.

Finally, the infamous Lord Monckton, described by Wikipedia as “a British politician, business consultant, policy adviser, writer, columnist, inventor and hereditary peer,” made the case against global warming by reference to public opinion. He was quoted as follows:

“As anybody knows who follows the opinion polls in Britain and Australia and the US, in the last few weeks and months there has been a rapid collapse in the global warming chimera so while we still have our freedom, let us speak out.”

How like a politician, etc. to rely on opinion polls among the general public to decide scientific questions. Lord Monckton is not a scientist himself, so one wonders whether he attended the conference as a businessman or as a lobbyist. Perhaps a bit of each.

Although it is amusing to watch the antics of the climate change deniers, it is really quite serious because their misdirection, made-up facts and propaganda has even more seriously confused the general public. And, as noted above, the opinions of the generally ignorant public are given great weight by such as politicians, decision makers and journalists who depend on them for votes, donations, audience ratings or other support.

For more commentary on this general subject, read my essay “Science, Propaganda & Climate Change,” published here on October 4, 2009.

Posted in Climate Change, Melting Planet, Politics | 1 Comment »