Archive for April, 2009

Ignorance, Meet Unreasonable Optimism

Thursday, April 23rd, 2009

By David L. Brown

Yesterday was Earth Day and nothing much happened. Well, the organizers claim that a billion people around the world celebrated the event. Hmm, I am skeptical of that, unless “celebrating” might include glancing at the sky, scraping one’s foot in the dirt, or otherwise recognizing the planet on which we live. Defined that way, more than six billion may be said to have celebrated the event, albeit without realizing it.

Meanwhile, the charge is on in Washington to tackle all the problems of the world’s environmental threats. A cap-and-trade plan is in motion to “solve” our CO² problems by adding taxes to any entity that emits carbon. The money the government receives will supposedly go to further R&D directed to “clean” energy, but you know how that goes. Just remember that all the money we have paid into the Social Security system was supposed to be there for us in our old age, but the government squandered every last dime of it on other things and stuck future generations with the bill. Will the cap-and-trade revenues be used any more wisely?

I continue to be astonished at the ignorance displayed on both sides of the climate change question. On the one hand we have the deniers, those who claim there is no such thing as global warming or climate change, and that even if there were it wouldn’t mean much if anything. This flies in the face of a vast body of scientific evidence, almost all of which points to a serious threat as global warming continues. Deniers are neither optimists nor pessimists on the question, since they refuse to even acknowledge the problem exists. In effect, they are putting their fingers in their ears and saying “Nyah, nyah, I can’t hear you!”

On the other hand we have those who happily think that we can just wave a kind of magic wand over the problem and make it go away. In previous essays I have discussed what I call the Rabbit of Unreasonable Hope, waiting be pulled out of a magician’s hat to amaze and reassure the audience. These eternal optimists can be compared to the followers of cults, laying aside reason in order to accept unlikely “facts” that make them feel good. They follow the principles set down in the children’s book Pollyanna, in which the main character makes a “game” of finding something positive in every situation, no matter how grim. These modern day Pollyannas believe that if only we start right now today we can undo all the troubles in the world in just no time at all.

As I have explained in previous essays, I think of myself as a realist. A realist is someone who looks at the facts as they are and determines the best course of action. On the question of climate change and environmental decline, I come down neither on the side of the deniers nor those who are preternaturally optimistic on the question. Deniers are either ignorant, evil or both. Pollyannas are watching that magician with no doubt in their minds that the Rabbit of Unreasonable Hope will soon hop out and make everything swell again. These ideas are fed upon by politicians such as Barack Obama, who said during the campaign last year that if he were elected “that was the moment the rise of the oceans began to slow and the planet began to heal.” Statements such as this are reminiscent of the empty promises of cult leaders promising special, magical events for their followers. They have no basis in reality, none whatsoever.

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California Vulnerable to Water Disaster

Thursday, April 2nd, 2009

By David L. Brown

As our readers know we have pointed out many problems facing the Earth and human civilization. There is always a common denominator, it seems, a thread that winds its way through all the dangers facing our planet. That is the imbalance between growing human numbers with “improving” lifestyles and the ability of the planet to support the ever-upward pressure of economies and societies based solely on growth.

A recent issue of Science magazine contains an article that highlights one particular example of this, the growing imbalance between the demand of California residents and farmers and uncertainties about the supply of fresh water.

As is so often the case when examining environmental impacts on human beings, the problem in California is not just that there are more people demanding more water—there is also less water, thanks perhaps to climate change. A serious drought has been plaguing the Golden State for the past three years. According to the Science article, titled “California’s Water Crisis: Worse to Come?” (March 27, 2009 issue; subscription required) in February, “Central Valley farmers were told that all water deliveries would be halted, and State Water Project managers said they would be forced to cut water deliveries to just 15% of normal.”

California is the nation’s No. 1 producer of many food crops, and yet the abundance depends in very large part on irrigation. The state has hundreds of miles of canals and waterways such as this:

1665-1-med

This is a view of the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta, the hub of California’s fresh water system. This waterway is girdled by more than a thousand miles of levees. According to hydrologists, the levees are bound to fail at some point in the future, creating future problems that could be catastrophic.

Meanwhile, though, it’s drought that is the problem. For now, late winter snowfall brought mountain snowpack up to 90 percent of normal, relieving pressure on administrators to cut off irrigation water to farmers. For now, the bullet has been dodged. However, recent trends have been ominous, hinting at more years of drought and water shortages.

Discussing the future of the delta, Robert F. Service the author of  the Science article writes:

Over the next few decades, a one-two punch of climate change and earthquakes is expected to change the delta dramatically. The delta contains some 1770 kilometers of levees holding back water from dozens of stadium-sized sunken “islands” inside which the land has subsided. By 2050, the chance of widespread levee failures is as high as 95%, due to runoff from the northern Sierras, which is predicted to be more concentrated in the late winter and early spring, and the increasing risk of earthquake, according to a report last summer by the Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC). If that occurs, salt water from the San Francisco Bay would rush in to fill the voids, dramatically increasing the salinity of water in the delta, possibly making it undrinkable. Adding sea-level rise to the equation–as climate models predict–brings the date of levee failures closer. “It will happen,” says Ellen Hanek, a PPIC economist in San Francisco.

This looming threat is merely a tiny sampling of a worldwide phenomenon that is threatening some of the regions where a large proportion of the world’s people live. The problem is that glaciers which feed rivers such as the Ganges in India, the Yellow and Yangtze in China, the Mekong in Vietnam and even the Po in Italy are melting. Snow alone does not feed the rivers a steady flow of water through the summer, and as global temperatures climb winter snow in the high mountains melts faster. The result is a growing tendency to disastrous flooding early in the season followed by drought just when crops need the water most.

Fresh water is just one of the many resources which are growing in short supply, and it is a crucial one to human existence. No form of agriculture has been devised that does not rely upon reliable and abundant sources of water. As the California example illustrates, even wealthy and advanced regions can be threatened when water scarcity spreads.