Archive for September, 2007

Accelerating Disaster in the Arctic Ocean

Wednesday, September 12th, 2007

By David L. Brown

A couple of years ago I privately predicted that the Arctic polar ice cap would melt a lot quicker than scientists were willing to predict. I noted the trend and projected ice loss using common sense, and by factoring in the effect of high-albedo ice and snow being replaced by low-albedo open sea water. Albedo is a measure of the amount of Sunlight reflected from the surface of celestial objects, including the Earth. It is estimated that open water absorbs 7 or 8 times more heat from the Sun than snow and ice, which reflect much of the solar energy back into space.

At that time in October, 2005, scientists were predicting the ice would not disappear for a hundred years. I boldly predicted a complete meltdown of the Arctic ice within as little as ten years, which would place it in about 2015. It wasn’t long before events began to move in the direction I had predicted.
Here are some excerpts from what I wrote in a posting made about one year ago on September 16, 2006 titled “Meltdown of Arctic Ice Continues to Accelerate”:

We have written before about the observed shrinking of the Arctic ice cap, and Star Phoenix Base has contended that the rate of disappearance is accelerating and threatens to become a runaway meltdown. Our reasoning for this pessimistic position is based on several factors. First, temperatures in the Arctic are rising faster than in temperate or tropical regions. In Alaska, for example, average temperatures already have risen by as much as seven degrees F. In the far north of Canada, Alaska, and Siberia, permafrost is melting and thus lending irony to its name, since it is no longer “perma.” That melting is releasing greenhouse gases long sequestered in the frozen bogs, adding impetus to the warming trend.

…

Now there is evidence that our speculations were spot on, as the British say. According to the National Aeronautical and Space Administration, the wintertime extent of Arctic ice has decreased by six percent in each of the last two years. That compares with a previously observed rate of decrease of only 1.5 percent per decade, or a mere 0.15 percent per year. It is based on those previous rates that scientists as recently as one year ago were predicting that the Arctic ice cap would not completely disappear for about 100 years.

…

I analyzed the situation in October, 2005 and made the prediction in private correspondence that it would happen much faster, perhaps in as little as ten years. I later published some of this analysis on this weblog. Some earlier postings on this subject can be found in this site’s archives, particularly the articles “Bad News for Polar Bears — The Big Thaw,” and “Catastrophic Loss of Arctic Ice in Store.” You can find these and other articles by using the keyword search function on the sidebar.

In other postings I have noted the fact that the Arctic ice cover should not be viewed only from the standpoint of its area. It is a relatively thin layer of ice floating in the Arctic Ocean, and that layer of ice has grown significantly thinner. In other words, the total volume of ice per unit of area is also declining, perhaps rapidly so. Add that to the albedo effect and you have the makings of a runaway meltdown.

Now the latest news from the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) in Boulder, Colorado, as reported today by CNN.com (read it here) in an article titled “Arctic Sea Ice Cover at Record Low”:

Ice cover in the Arctic Ocean, long held to be an early warning of a changing climate, has shattered the all-time low record this summer…

It is possible that Arctic sea ice could decline even further this year before the onset of winter.
Using satellite data and imagery, NSIDC now estimates the Arctic ice pack covers 4.24 million square kilometers (1.63 million square miles) — equal to just less than half the size of the United States. This figure is about 20 percent less than the previous all-time low record of 5.32 million square kilometers (2.05 million square miles) set in September 2005

Mark Serreze, senior research scientist at NSIDC, termed the decline “astounding.”

“It’s almost an exclamation point on the pronounced ice loss we’ve seen in the past 30 years,” he said.

Most researchers had anticipated that the complete disappearance of the Arctic ice pack during summer months would happen after the year 2070, he said, but now, “losing summer sea ice cover by 2030 is not unreasonable.”

Here is a map from the NSIDC web site showing the extent of Arctic ice as of three days ago. The purple line indicates the “normal” or median historic limits and the white area is the actual ice coverage. As can be seen, at this time the Northwest Passage is still wide open according to the NSIDC site, which you can view here.

20070910_extentthumb.jpg

My projections from a year ago were based on an accelerating loss of ice, and the new data appears to confirm my analysis. (Disclaimer: I am not a climate scientist but am well-read on the subject, seem to be imbued with some common sense, and am not constrained by political correctness or fear of job security.)

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Posted in Climate Change, Melting Planet | 1 Comment »

The Day the World Should Have Changed

Tuesday, September 11th, 2007

By David L. Brown

Today is 9/11/07, six years since the world changed.

Well, no, let me take that back. Six years ago the world should have changed for us, when 19 Arab men, most of them Saudis, turned four airliners filled with innocent people into weapons of mass destruction. It was the most astonishing military attack ever suffered by the United States, more horrifying than Pearl Harbor because it took place right in our nation’s business center and because it targeted innocents.

What’s that? You question my use of the word “military” to describe the events of 9/11? Well let me explain: Our nation is in a state of war, a war declared not by us but against us. It is the most dangerous war we, and indeed all of modern civilization, have ever faced for it is essentially a war to the death for civilization as we know it.

Those who have declared this war, this Jihad, are followers of a centuries old cult that has the goal of converting, subjugating, or killing every non-Muslim man, woman and child on the face of the Earth. Not even Hitler, Stalin, or any other conquerer in history had such an ambitious and bloodthirsty agenda as that of our present enemy.

But, you say, 9/11 could not have been an act of war because these Arab people were civilians, not soldiers. Well, no they weren’t civilians, as I am sure they would have been the first to argue. They were acting that day as “soldiers of Allah,” going proudly to their imagined rewards in Paradise. Just because they did not wear a recognized uniform, march in columns or bear the flag of a nation does not mean that they were anything other than soldiers following orders into battle.

According to the American Heritage Dictionary, the definition of a civilian is as follows:

  1. A person following the pursuits of civil life, especially one who is not an active member of the military, the police, or a belligerent group.

Pay attention now: According to a leading standard reference dictionary, a civilian is someone “who is not … part of a belligerent group”. Al-Qaeda and any number of other militant Islamic organizations are by strict definition “belligerent,” and thus their followers, supporters and sympathizers in their hundreds of thousands or even millions are non-civilians, every last one of them. That makes my use of the terms “military” and “soldiers” completely accurate.

But let me get back to my point, which is that despite the fact that the United States six years ago suffered a terrible and brutal military attack by soldiers of a worldwide power — the world has not changed nearly as much as it needs to…

What, do I see you raising your hand once more? Oh, now you challenge my use of the term “worldwide power”? Well, I will admit that Jihadist Islam is different from the kind of world powers that we are accustomed to, such as our own nation the United States, the former Soviet Union, or Great Britain when it was still great and ruled the waves. But neither were the Viet Cong who defeated us three decades ago cast in the same mold as members of the U.N. Security Council. There are many other examples of wars in which at least one side consisted of loosely organized combatants. The American Revolution began in much that sort of way, with citizen-soldiers sniping from behind trees with their squirrel rifles at “Redcoats” marching in rank and file. Today, we are the Redcoats and we are no less involved in war than when our founding fathers fought against the forces of King George III.

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Posted in Conflict and War, Essays and Opinion, Global Security, Politics | 1 Comment »

Pacific Rim Nations Wimp Out on Climate Change

Saturday, September 8th, 2007

By David L. Brown

Leaders of the Pacific Rim have agreed on a statement calling for all nations “to slow, stop and then reverse the growth of global greenhouse gas emissions,” according to an Associated Press report (see the full story here on forbes.com). The statement was hammered out during the first two days of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum in Sydney, Australia.

According to the news story, the leaders of 21 countries, including major greenhouse gas emitters the United States, Russia, China and Australia…

…adopted modest goals to curb global warming. Thousands of demonstrators rallied to demand stronger action.

Some experts and activists dismissed as ineffective the program adopted by the presidents of the United States, China, Russia and leaders of other Asia-Pacific economies at an annual summit – which did not set goals for cutting countries’ output of polluting gases.

But it sets a precedent because it applies to all of the group’s mix of rich and developing members, and could influence upcoming U.N. negotiations on climate change.

The resolution “charted a new international consensus for the region and the world,” crowed Australian Prime Minister John Howard. But meanwhile 3000 demonstrators constrained behind a wall and police cordons peacefully called for more stringent action. And there does seem to be ample reason to believe the agreement is too little, too late. The AP report includes this:

The program’s centerpiece is a goal to reduce “energy intensity” – the amount of energy needed to produce a dollar of gross domestic product – 25 percent by 2030.

The only other concrete goal was to increase forest cover in the region by at least 50 million acres by 2020 – enough to absorb about 11 percent of the greenhouse gases the world emitted in 2004, the final statement said.

Both are nonbinding targets in keeping with APEC’s voluntary, consensus-based approach.

Environmental groups and some climate change experts said the agreement was weak.

“In practical terms, that will mean almost nothing,” said Frank Jotzo, an Australian National University expert in climate change economics. “It is very unambitious.”

The energy intensity target sets a rate that most economies are naturally meeting as they get richer and shift out of power-intensive manufacturing, he said.

“If the APEC statement is the platform for future action on climate change, then the world is in trouble,” said Catherine Fitzpatrick, a Greenpeace energy campaigner.

Note the phrase “modest goals” to describe the agreement. When action on greenhouse gases is dressed up in faux economic clothing through the use of terms such as “reduce energy intensity,” it creates the impression that solving the climate change problem will be painless, in fact, an opportunity to increase economic growth. No mention is made of the need for anyone to be inconvenienced or to make sacrifices.

Consider that “planting trees” is a wimpy “feel good solution” designed to create a warm and fuzzy effect while appeasing greens and tree huggers who live in an imaginary Disneyesque world and think that trees are more important than people.

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Posted in Climate Change, Politics | 1 Comment »