Archive for the ‘Retro Reviews’ Category

Malthus’s Classic “Essay on Population” Revisited

Sunday, October 29th, 2006

A RETRO REVIEW

“An Essay on the Principle of Population,” by T. R. Malthus; originally published in 1798; Oxford World Classics edition, © 1993, revised edition 2004; 172 pgs., $9.95
By David L. Brown

Anyone who is the least bit clued in about population and environmental issues has heard of Thomas Malthus, the English cleric who published his “Essay on the Principle of Population” in 1798. We all know — or at least we think we know — that Malthus was a doomsayer who predicted that the human race would continue to multiply until the Earth was overwhelmed and destroyed by the press of human numbers. For generations Malthus has been ridiculed for his (supposed) ideas.

Until recently, it had not occurred to me that I didn’t know anyone who had actually read Malthus, nor had I seen any in-depth discussion of his work. I recently saw a book passage describing Malthus as “an English monk,” which I knew was wrong and which seemed to reflect a great deal of ignorance on the part of the writer. My curiosity aroused, I determined to find out what this supposed doomsday character actually said. Going to my nearest bookstore (Amazon.com, located about two keystrokes from my desk), I ordered a copy of Malthus’s book. (Yes, book, for we have been misled by the word “essay” in the title and in fact this is actually a small volume of more than 150 pages.) Reading it and the biographical information it contained was a revelation in more ways than one.

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Editor’s Note: The date of birth on this artwork is incorrect; Malthus was born in Surrey, England, on February 13, 1766.

First, I learned that Malthus was more than just an ordinary country parson (much less a monk). He was a scholar of some note, having graduated with honors in mathematics from Cambridge University in 1788 and completing an MA degree in 1791. He was elected a Fellow of Jesus College, Cambridge, in 1793. He was indeed an Anglican parson in his early years and at the time he wrote his famous essay. However, he went on to become one of the most influential economists of his era. In 1805 he was appointed Professor of History and Political Economy at East India College, a position he held until his death in 1834.

Malthus was well traveled, including an extended trip to Scandinavia and Russia in 1799 and visits to Switzerland and France in 1802. He was a founding member of the Political Economy Club (London, 1821) and was elected a member of the Royal Society. He published many books and articles on economics and was recognized as one of the leading thinkers of his generation.

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Revisiting a Classic: Ehrlich’s “Population Bomb”

Saturday, July 15th, 2006

RETRO REVIEW

“The Population Bomb,” by Paul R. Ehrlich, ©1968, rev. 1971; reprint in library binding available from Buccaneer Books, Inc., 201 pgs.

By David L. Brown

This prescient book, issued nearly forty years ago, was a major turning point toward the understanding of the harm rising human population is doing to our planet. Following on other works, such as Georg Borgstrom’s The Hungry Planet (1967), Ehrlich’s book was the first to catch the attention of a wide audience with the message that all might not be right with the world.

Unfortunately, Ehrlich’s message came at a time when humankind was unprepared to accept responsibility for the stewardship of the planet, and he made the mistake of making specific predictions of looming near-term famine and other disasters, events which failed to occur when he said they would. He based his scenarios on direct extrapolations of trends of the times, but did not foresee mitigating factors such as the greater-than-expected success of the Green Revolution and other technological initiatives. When Ehrlich’s target dates came and went with no disastrous famines and plagues, critics attacked his entire thesis and made the case that the predicted disasters were imagined and would never happen.

As anyone who has kept abreast of the subject must be aware, for the most part it was not that Ehrlich’s predictions per se were incorrect, but merely that his projected timing proved to be off. Unfortunately, the threats he described still loom and now humankind has gone nearly four decades further down the wrong path.

I thought it would be interesting for Star Phoenix Base to take a fresh look at The Population Bomb in light of present knowledge and trends, to see how well Ehrlich’s original predictions have stood the test of time. Re-reading this volume after so many years was an interesting and rewarding exercise.

Ehrlich laid the groundwork by making the point that population expansion is determined both by birth rates and death rates, and that while birth rates have been on the decline, so have death rates. People are living far longer due to public health measures, vaccination, and disease control and eradication programs. He called this “exported death control” since the medical technologies that have extended life expectancy come almost entirely from the developed world and have had the greatest impact in the so-called third world.

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An Agricultural Classic: Topsoil & Civilization

Monday, June 12th, 2006

RETRO REVIEW

Editor’s Note: This is the first in a series of book reviews of previously published and out-of-print works of particular interest to Star Phoenix Base. These reviews will be filed under the appropriate subjects, and also in a separate “Retro Reviews” category to create a valuable archive of information about historical ideas, predictions, and opinions relating to the future of the Earth.

by Val Germann

TOPSOIL & CIVILIZATION; By Vernon Gill Carter and Tom Dale; University of Oklahoma Press (1955 & 1974), 292pp.; out of print.

This astonishing book is long out of print and seems to have attained collectible status on the Amazon Books website. Checking there the other day, in hopes of finding some inexpensive copies I could recommend to my readers here at Star Phoenix Base, I found only three copies available, all at a very high price. This is most unfortunate because Topsoil & Civilization speaks to our time most forcefully, most forcefully indeed.

The heart of the book is a country by country survey of the Earth, documenting the planet-wide destruction of soils and soil productivity, which makes for chapter after chapter of very sad reading indeed. The impetus for this research was the U.S. dust bowl of the 1930s, an ecological disaster that saw whole states get up and blow away. Author Carter was an official of the National Wildlife Federation and Tom Dale worked for the U.S. Soil Conservation Service. They both saw, up close and personal, the results of bad agricultural practices and poor land management, neither of which have since disappeared from the world scene.

That is, the poster child for destructive agriculture these days has to be that marvel of “development,” China. The dust storms there are so bad now that the plumes can reach all the way across the Pacific and yellow the sunsets over the American midwest. In the capital city of Bejing the residents have to wear masks for weeks on end, to protect themselves from the dust. That’s what “progress” can mean if your top people do not take care of the nation’s land.

So, as you can see, the work of authors Carter and Dale is right “up to the minute” in its relevance to Anno Domini 2006. And speaking of AD, or CE, let’s begin a more detailed discussion of this book with the ancient city of Antioch, in Syria, where St. Paul first preached the Gospel and the title “Christian” was first used.

Antioch was at that time the third largest city in the entire Roman world, behind only Alexandria (in Egypt) and Rome itself. As late as 360 CE, Antioch boasted 200,000 inhabitants, “not including children and slaves,” according to the Christian bishop St. John Chrysostom.

The city was fed by a hinterland of more than 200 square miles and was a trade center through its nearby port, Seleucia, on the Mediterranean fifteen miles away down the Orontes river. Antioch’s main street was more than four miles in length and had ornate covered walkways on both sides, lighted at night.

The city had running water supplied to many of its houses, along with indoor plumbing. For several hundred years it was a jewel of Western Civilization, surviving even a massive earthquake in 115 CE. But it could not survive the destruction of its hinterland and was to become lost to history for more than a millennium, before being dug up again in the 19th century.

So, what happened to the hinterland of Antioch, to the two hundred square miles that supported, in luxury, so large a population for so long? Below is a quote from the 1810 diary of one of the first Europeans to visit the area since ancient times, John Burckhardt. He is writing about the Plains of Antioch and the ruins of some of the area’s ancient towns:

The neighbourbood of these towns, at least for five miles round, presents nothing but an uneven plain, thickly covered with barren rocks, which rise to the height of two or three feet above the surface. A few herbs grow in the fissures of the rocks, which are scarcely sufficient to keep from starving half a dozen horses, the property of the present miserable inhabitants.

This was an area that had sustained more than 200 towns and villages, in style, at the same time it was supplying grain, meat and wine to Antioch. And therein lies the tale: the land was over-exploited, mined, and little by little lost its ability to provide sustenance. In the late 1930s, following the Dust Bowl in our Great Plains, U.S. agriculture officials visited the place and the authors of Topsoil & Civilization report what they found:

“An area of about a million acres exhibits soil erosion at its worst. Here are the ruins of villages and market towns resting on a skeleton rock of limestone hills, from which 3 to 6 feet of soil have been swept off.”

That “swept off” soil was blown by the wind or washed down stream, down to Antioch itself and to its harbor. Carter and Dale reported that the archeologists who rediscovered Antioch were working more than 20 feet below ground level, and a similar situation existed at the site of Seleucia, by then miles from the sea and under many feet of detritus. They both were dead cities — and had been for more than a thousand years.

A few days ago I wrote here on Star Phoenix Base about the loss of topsoil in Missouri, about a plot of unbroken prairie I had seen thirty years ago. That plot was elevated more than a foot above the surrounding eroded terrain. Yes, it’s happening here, today, just as it happened in ancient Syria. And we are on the verge of creating our own “dead city,” the city of New Orleans, being slowly killed by bad land management as surely as was Antioch.

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